Archive for September 2, 2011

Economic Growth

The third phase of the transition can be characterized as a stalemate, a relatively short period of equilibrium of forces of the old and the new world. This is a phase of depression in the dynamics of the business cycle (when there is no recession, but there is no economic growth has not begun the healing process), the restructuring of social forces, public awareness of the irrevocable loss of the old order and the inevitability of the transition to the new. Its elements, taking advantage of respite unite and prepare for a decisive breakthrough. The fourth and final phase of the transition is reflected in the rapid onset scored by members of a new society, break it in the leading countries, the final defeat (though not excluded desperate counter-attack and relapses) and the displacement of the periphery, in the primordial state of losing their once-mighty power of the outgoing element of civilization. At this stage, gradually decreases randomness and order increases, the predictability in the dynamics of society.

It starts with economic growth, which makes it possible to allocate more resources for personal consumption and for savings, the restructuring process basis of society. Regain their strength stabilization mechanisms established order. Becomes apparent triumph of the new, in the phase of formation of civilization. A schematic phase of the transition can be represented as follows: The latent phase – dryahlenie, drop in efficiency of the old society – the emergence of new germs of civilization stage landslide crisis and chaos – crises, wars, revolution, destruction of the foundations of the outgoing civilization, the rise of chaos – the emergence and selection of elements of a new civilization stalemate – the balance of power of the old and the new society, depression – laying the foundations of a new civilization, identifying leaders The final stage – the destruction and displacement of elements of the outgoing civilization – the establishment and spread in the midst of a new society, what are the results of the transition period? First, it completes the transition to a new round the spiral of history, the formation of the next world civilization.